Match Analysis: Rybakina Defeats Pegula to Reach the WTA Finals 2025 Final
In a dramatic and tightly contested three-set battle at the WTA Finals 2025 in Riyadh, the red-hot Elena Rybakina (No. 6 seed) overcame a one-set deficit to defeat Jessica Pegula (No. 5 seed) with a final score of 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. The match, which lasted just over two hours, was a clinic in contrasting styles, with Rybakina’s overwhelming power game ultimately prevailing over Pegula’s consistency and all-court strategy. This victory propelled the Kazakh player, who was undefeated in the group stage, into her first-ever WTA Finals championship match.
The match was decided by a razor-thin margin in overall performance, but a massive gap in one key area: serving dominance.
Total Points: A Battle of Efficiency
The overall scoreline reflects the close nature of the contest, but the final count of total points won reveals where the match truly turned:
- Elena Rybakina Total Points Won: 100/190 (52.6%)
- Jessica Pegula Total Points Won: 90/190 (47.4%)
Rybakina’s 10-point advantage, though narrow, was the difference-maker across three sets. Her superior overall points won statistic was powered by her service game, where she won 61.8% (55/89) of her total service points compared to Pegula’s 55.4% (56/101). This suggests Rybakina was more efficient in holding serve and creating pressure when returning.
The Power Metric: Aces and First Serve Dominance
The most significant statistical chasm in the match was the overwhelming disparity in Rybakina’s serve, which the data confirms was her primary weapon and the engine of her victory.
| Metric | Jessica Pegula (J.P.) | Elena Rybakina (E.R.) | Differential (E.R. Advantage) |
| Aces | 1 | 15 | Rybakina (+14) |
| Double Faults | 1 | 5 | Pegula (+4 DF control) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 59.4% (41/69) | 73.2% (41/56) | Rybakina (+13.8%) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 46.9% (15/32) | 42.4% (14/33) | Pegula (+4.5%) |
| Total Service Points Won | 55.4% (56/101) | 61.8% (55/89) | Rybakina (+6.4%) |
| Total Points Won | 47.4% (90/190) | 52.6% (100/190) | Rybakina (+10 points) |
- The Ace Factor: Rybakina’s 15 aces not only provided 14 free points but also applied immense psychological pressure, forcing Pegula to constantly guess and stretch her returns. This monumental advantage set the tone for the entire match.
- Double Faults: Crucially, Pegula’s remarkable discipline, committing just 1 double fault to Rybakina’s 5, could not compensate for the lack of free points and the lower win rate on her first serve.
- Contrasting First Serves: While Pegula put in a higher percentage of first serves (68.3% vs. 62.9%), Rybakina’s serve was far more effective when it landed. Her 73.2% win rate on the first serve compared to Pegula’s 59.4% gave her a considerable edge, preventing her from facing as many break points and allowing her to dictate rallies on her own terms.
- Second Serve Stability: Pegula was slightly better on her second serve (46.9% to Rybakina’s 42.4%), showcasing her defensive consistency, but this marginal gain could not offset the massive first-serve gap.
The Return Game: Rybakina’s Aggression Pays Off
The return statistics highlight Rybakina’s relentless pressure on Pegula’s first serve, which was crucial in reversing the momentum after losing the first set.
| Metric | Jessica Pegula (J.P.) | Elena Rybakina (E.R.) |
| 1st Return Points Won | 26.8% (15/56) | 40.6% (28/69) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 57.6% (19/33) | 53.1% (17/32) |
| Break Points Converted | 50.0% (4/8) | 45.5% (5/11) |
- First-Serve Return: Rybakina won 40.6% of points returning Pegula’s first serve—an outstanding rate that shows she was successfully neutralizing Pegula’s initial shot and moving directly into offense. Pegula, conversely, only won 26.8% of her first-serve return points, struggling to cope with Rybakina’s speed.
- Break Point Effectiveness: Pegula was more efficient, converting 50% (4/8) of her break opportunities, but Rybakina generated more chances, converting 5 of 11 (45.5%). Rybakina’s ability to create three more break point opportunities (11 total) speaks to her sustained pressure and was the key mechanism for securing the necessary breaks in the second and third sets. Pegula’s defense, saving 6 of 11 break points (54.5%), was valiant but ultimately insufficient.
Context and Conclusion
Google Search confirms that Rybakina entered the semifinal as the “hottest player in women’s tennis,” having gone undefeated (3-0) in the group stage and extending her winning streak to 10 matches with this victory. Her superior form and power were perfectly suited to the indoor hardcourt conditions in Riyadh.
While Pegula’s exceptional consistency allowed her to win the first set (6-4) and maintain a slight edge on second-serve points, she simply could not withstand the barrage of Rybakina’s first serve. Rybakina’s 15 aces and 73.2% first-serve points won created too many “cheap” points and allowed her to manage the pressure better in the decisive moments. The match was a clear demonstration of how elite serving can overcome even the most resolute defense, with Rybakina’s statistical dominance on serve tipping the 90-100 point scale in her favor and securing her spot in the WTA Finals championship match.
To see more complete match analysis data, you can visit this page on the official WTA website.
