2026 Australian Open Women’s Singles Semifinals: Matchups, Preview, & Prediction

MELBOURNE — As the Australian summer heat begins to settle and the floodlights wash over the blue hard courts of Melbourne Park, the stage is set for one of the most anticipated nights in tennis. On Thursday, January 29, 2026, the Rod Laver Arena will host a blockbuster Night Session featuring the Women’s Singles Semifinals. Following the conclusion of earlier doubles action, the world’s eyes will turn to four women standing on the precipice of history, battling for a coveted spot in Saturday’s final to lift the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup.

The schedule for the evening is nothing short of spectacular, featuring a clash of styles, narratives of redemption, and the pure, unadulterated power of the world’s best ball strikers.

The Opener: Power vs. Resilience

Aryna Sabalenka [1] vs. Elina Svitolina [12]

Starts: 19:30

The night session, commencing at 7:30 pm AEDT, opens with a fascinating encounter between the World No. 1, Aryna Sabalenka, and the spirited 12th seed, Elina Svitolina.

For Aryna Sabalenka, the Australian Open has become her fortress. Entering the 2026 tournament as the top seed, she has once again displayed the formidable baseline aggression that has defined her career. Sabalenka’s journey to the semifinals has been a masterclass in controlled chaos; her serve, once her Achilles’ heel, is now a weapon of mass destruction, and her forehand remains one of the heaviest shots on the WTA tour. Sabalenka thrives on the Rod Laver Arena, feeding off the energy of the night crowd. Her path to this Thursday night showdown has likely been paved with sheer power, overwhelming opponents who simply cannot match her pace of shot.

Across the net stands Elina Svitolina, a player whose narrative is defined by grit, national pride, and tactical intelligence. Seeded 12th, Svitolina’s presence in the semifinals is a testament to her incredible fitness and counter-punching ability. Unlike Sabalenka, who seeks to end points early, Svitolina is willing to suffer. She extends rallies, using her exceptional movement to retrieve balls that seem destined for the stands, forcing her opponents to hit one extra shot.

This matchup presents a classic “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” scenario. Sabalenka will look to dictate every point, pushing Svitolina behind the baseline. However, Svitolina excels at absorbing pace and redirecting it down the line. If the Ukrainian can frustrate the World No. 1 and force unforced errors, the match could turn into a psychological war. Conversely, if Sabalenka’s radar is locked in, it could be a long night for the 12th seed. The crowd will likely be split, appreciating Sabalenka’s dominance while rallying behind the emotional resilience of Svitolina.

The Feature: The Battle of the Ball Strikers

Jessica Pegula [6] vs. Elena Rybakina [5]

Starts: 20:40

Following the conclusion of the Sabalenka-Svitolina match, the Rod Laver Arena will bear witness to a contest that is almost too close to call: the 6th seed, Jessica Pegula, against the 5th seed, Elena Rybakina.

Jessica Pegula has long been the model of consistency on the tour, but in 2026, she appears to have found an extra gear. Often criticized in the past for stalling at the quarterfinal stages of majors, Pegula has broken through that ceiling with a determination that has impressed pundits worldwide. The American’s game is built on flat, penetrating groundstrokes and impeccable timing. She takes the ball incredibly early, robbing her opponents of time—a tactic that is crucial on the quick courts of Melbourne. Pegula doesn’t give away free points; she is a rhythmic player who can dismantle opponents with geometric precision.

Her opponent, Elena Rybakina, represents the epitome of “ice-cold” tennis. The Kazakhstani star, seeded just one spot ahead of Pegula at No. 5, possesses arguably the best serve in the women’s game. When Rybakina’s first serve is landing, she is virtually unplayable, earning free points that relieve pressure on her return games. Rybakina moves deceptively well for her height and can generate effortless power from both wings. Her calm demeanor on the court—rarely showing positive or negative emotion—often unsettles opponents who look for signs of weakness.

The tactical key to this match will be the return of serve. Pegula is one of the best returners in the game, capable of neutralizing big serves by blocking the ball back deep. If she can read the Rybakina toss and get into the rallies, her flat hitting might keep the ball too low for Rybakina’s comfort zone. However, if Rybakina serves at a high percentage and keeps the points short (under four shots), the advantage tilts heavily in her favor.

Head-to-Head Records

Before the first ball is struck, here is how the semifinalists stack up against each other based on their previous tour-level meetings.

Match 1: Sabalenka vs. Svitolina

• Head-to-Head: Sabalenka leads 5-1
• Most Recent Meeting: 2025 Madrid Open (Semifinal) — Sabalenka won 6-3, 7-5.
• The Narrative: Sabalenka has dominated this rivalry recently, winning their last four encounters. Svitolina’s lone victory came early in their rivalry. While Svitolina has been in renaissance form this fortnight, the history books suggest she struggles to contain Sabalenka’s power on big stages.

Match 2: Pegula vs. Rybakina

• Head-to-Head: Tied 3-3
• Most Recent Meeting: 2025 WTA Finals Riyadh — Rybakina won in straight sets.
• The Narrative: This is a rivalry of two halves. Jessica Pegula won their first three meetings (2022-2023), proving she could dismantle Rybakina’s game. However, the momentum has shifted violently; Rybakina has won their last three encounters, including two dominant performances in 2025. Pegula will need to arrest this slide to reach the final.

Fearless Forecast: Predicting the Finalists

As the Night Session approaches, analysts and fans alike are split. The margins at this stage of a Grand Slam are razor-thin, often decided by a single break of serve or a moment of brilliance in a tiebreak. Here is how we see Thursday night unfolding at Rod Laver Arena.

Aryna Sabalenka [1] vs. Elina Svitolina [12]

The Breakdown: This match will likely be decided on Sabalenka’s racquet. When the World No. 1 is landing her first serves and keeping her unforced error count manageable, she is nearly impossible to stop on these courts. Svitolina will undoubtedly make Sabalenka work for every point, utilizing her superior movement to extend rallies and test the Belarusian’s patience. However, the sheer weight of shot from the top seed often breaks down even the best defenses over the course of a match.

• Key Factor: Sabalenka’s emotional composure. If she stays calm during Svitolina’s inevitable defensive stands, her power should prevail.
• Prediction: Sabalenka wins in straight sets (7-5, 6-3).

Jessica Pegula [6] vs. Elena Rybakina [5]

The Breakdown: This has all the makings of the match of the tournament. Pegula’s ability to take the ball early can rush Rybakina, preventing the Kazakhstani star from winding up her big groundstrokes. However, Rybakina possesses the “get out of jail free card”—her serve. In clutch moments, Rybakina’s ability to hit aces is a luxury Pegula does not have. While Pegula will fight tooth and nail, likely capturing a set with her relentless precision, Rybakina’s firepower in the deciding moments should see her through.

• Key Factor: First serve percentage. If Rybakina serves above 65%, it will be difficult for Pegula to break.
• Prediction: Rybakina wins in 3 sets (4-6, 6-4, 6-4).