Pegula vs. Rybakina – Australian Open 2026 Semifinal Match Review

Elena Rybakina once again proved why she is one of the most dangerous players on hard courts, delivering a composed and powerful performance to defeat Jessica Pegula 6–3, 7–6 in the Australian Open 2026 semifinal. In a match that blended raw power, tense momentum swings, and elite shot-making, Rybakina held her nerve when it mattered most, especially in a dramatic second-set tiebreak.

While Pegula showed her trademark resilience and consistency, the numbers—and the key moments—tilted decisively in Rybakina’s favor. With superior serving speed, heavier groundstrokes, and clutch execution under pressure, the former Wimbledon champion booked her place in Saturday’s final at Rod Laver Arena.

A Fast Start Sets the Tone

From the opening game, it was clear that Rybakina arrived with intent. Serving first, she immediately imposed herself with depth and pace, holding serve comfortably and forcing Pegula onto the defensive early. That pattern would repeat throughout much of the opening set.

Rybakina broke Pegula’s serve in the second game, capitalizing on a string of forehand errors from the American. The early break gave the Kazakhstani star breathing room, and she used it wisely, maintaining steady pressure with her forehand and taking the ball early whenever Pegula offered a short reply.

Pegula attempted to settle into the match by extending rallies and targeting Rybakina’s backhand wing, but the execution wasn’t always there. Forced errors began to pile up as Rybakina’s weight of shot consistently pushed Pegula behind the baseline.

By the time Rybakina surged ahead 3–0, the momentum was firmly on her side.

Rybakina’s Serve Makes the Difference

One of the most striking aspects of the semifinal was the clear difference in serving firepower. Rybakina finished the match with six aces to Pegula’s two and registered a fastest serve of 191 km/h, compared to Pegula’s 178 km/h.

Even more telling was Rybakina’s efficiency behind her first serve. She won an impressive 73% of first-serve points, a significant advantage over Pegula’s 61%. That reliability allowed Rybakina to play aggressively on return games without fear of immediate punishment.

Pegula, to her credit, managed moments of resistance. She held serve at 1–3 and later again at 2–4, briefly halting Rybakina’s momentum. However, every time Pegula looked ready to claw back into the set, Rybakina responded with clean winners—particularly off the forehand.

Serving at 5–3, Rybakina closed out the first set confidently, finishing it with a forehand winner that summed up her dominance: early contact, full commitment, no hesitation.

Pegula Fights Back in a Tense Second Set

If the first set belonged largely to Rybakina, the second was far more balanced—and far more dramatic.

Pegula raised her level immediately, holding serve to open the set and showing greater aggression on her forehand side. She began stepping into returns and finding sharper angles, forcing Rybakina to defend more often than she had in the opener.

Games became longer, rallies grew more physical, and unforced errors crept in on both sides. Rybakina, while still dangerous, showed brief lapses in concentration, particularly off the backhand wing, allowing Pegula to stay close on the scoreboard.

The set progressed on serve, with neither player able to establish a decisive advantage. Pegula’s ability to absorb pace and redirect shots down the line helped neutralize Rybakina’s power at key moments, especially during mid-set exchanges.

At 6–6, the semifinal headed into a tiebreak, setting the stage for a thrilling finish.

A Tiebreak of Nerves, Power, and Precision

The second-set tiebreak encapsulated everything about this matchup: Pegula’s grit versus Rybakina’s explosiveness.

Early on, Pegula stayed toe-to-toe, trading winners and taking advantage of a couple of unforced errors from Rybakina. But as the pressure mounted, Rybakina leaned on her biggest weapons.

A blistering forehand winner at 6–6 swung the momentum, followed shortly by a perfectly timed ace at 8–7—her sixth of the match—to set up match point. On the final rally, Rybakina stepped inside the baseline and unleashed a clean backhand winner, sealing the victory after nearly two hours of high-quality tennis.

It was a fitting end: decisive, confident, and fearless.

By the Numbers: Why Rybakina Won

The statistics tell a clear story of controlled aggression and superior execution from Rybakina.

She finished with 31 winners, more than double Pegula’s 14, and struck six return winners compared to Pegula’s one. While Rybakina did commit more unforced errors (29 to Pegula’s 19), her willingness to take risks paid off in critical moments.

Rybakina also excelled at the net, winning 86% of net points, a sign of smart court positioning and well-timed approaches. On break points, she converted 3 of 4, showing remarkable composure, while Pegula managed 4 of 10, missing several opportunities to swing the match in her favor.

Perhaps most crucially, Rybakina won 47% of receiving points, consistently applying pressure on Pegula’s serve and never allowing the American to relax during service games.

What This Win Means for Rybakina

This semifinal victory sends a clear message to the rest of the draw: Elena Rybakina is peaking at the perfect time.

Her combination of power, improved net play, and mental toughness makes her a formidable opponent on the Australian Open’s hard courts. The way she handled the tense second-set tiebreak—without panic or hesitation—underscored her growth as a big-match player.

Pegula leaves Melbourne having played a solid tournament, but on this night, Rybakina simply had too much firepower.

Looking Ahead: A Blockbuster Final Awaits

With the win, Elena Rybakina advances to the Australian Open 2026 final, where she will face Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday in what promises to be a thrilling showdown between two of the game’s most powerful hitters.

The matchup comes with an intriguing recent history. Their last meeting was in the 2025 WTA Finals final, where Rybakina defeated Sabalenka in a high-intensity battle. That result will surely be fresh in both players’ minds as they prepare for the biggest stage of the tournament.

If this semifinal was any indication, Rybakina arrives in the final with confidence, momentum, and belief—ready to chase another Grand Slam title under the Melbourne lights.