Rybakina Rockets into Australian Open Final: Ice Queen Freezes Pegula in Melbourne Semifinal

MELBOURNE, Australia – In a clash of contrasting styles under the bright lights of Rod Laver Arena, Elena Rybakina proved once again why she is the most formidable “Ice Queen” in the game. With a clinical 6-3, 7-6(7) victory over American favorite Jessica Pegula, Rybakina booked her spot in the 2026 Australian Open final, showcasing a masterclass in power serving and baseline aggression.

While the scoreboard might suggest a straightforward affair, the match was a pulsating tactical battle that saw the American’s trademark consistency pitted against the sheer velocity of the Kazakhstani’s groundstrokes. Ultimately, it was Rybakina’s ability to find the lines when it mattered most that silenced a vocal Melbourne crowd.

Set 1: Power Outage for Pegula

The match began with Rybakina establishing her dominance from the very first ball. Serving first, she sent a clear message with a flurry of forehand winners, holding comfortably to 15. Pegula, known for her world-class return game, struggled to find her rhythm against Rybakina’s first serve, which averaged a blistering 178 km/h throughout the opening set.

Rybakina broke early to lead 3-0, punishing Pegula’s second serves and forcing a series of backhand errors from the American. Despite Pegula finding some momentum in the middle of the set—holding her serve to stay within reach at 2-4 and 3-5—Rybakina was simply untouchable on her own delivery.

The Kazakhstani’s statistical dominance in the first set was telling:

• Aces: Rybakina 4, Pegula 1
• Winners: Rybakina 15, Pegula 6
• First Serve Points Won: Rybakina 82%

Rybakina closed out the first set 6-3 with a trademark forehand winner, a shot that clocked in as one of her 14 total forehand winners on the night.

Set 2: A Tiebreak Thriller

The second set saw a dramatic shift in energy. Pegula, refusing to let her maiden Australian Open semifinal slip away without a fight, stepped up her aggression. She began taking the ball earlier, moving Rybakina side-to-side and finding success at the net, where she finished the match with an impressive 86% win rate (6/7).

The players traded holds in a high-quality display of “big babe” tennis. Pegula’s backhand became a weapon, firing winners down the line to keep Rybakina off-balance. When Pegula held for 6-5, the pressure shifted back to the former Wimbledon champion. Rybakina, however, remained unfazed, firing an ace to help secure the hold and force a deciding tiebreak.

The tiebreak was a microcosm of the entire match:

1. Early Lead: Rybakina jumped ahead with a forehand winner.
2. The Comeback: Pegula fought back to 6-6, saving match points with gritty defense.
3. The Finisher: At 7-7, Rybakina hammered her 6th ace of the match to reach 8-7. She then ended the contest with a clinical backhand winner, sealing the set 7-6(7).

The Statistical Breakdown

The numbers highlight just how high the level of play was in this semifinal. Rybakina’s serve was the ultimate differentiator, reaching a top speed of 191 km/h.

Category	Jessica Pegula	Elena Rybakina
Aces	2	6
Total Winners	14	31
Unforced Errors	19	29
Fastest Serve	178 km/h	191 km/h
Net Points Won	6/7 (86%)	7/10 (70%)
Total Points Won	68	81

While Rybakina’s unforced error count was higher (29 to 19), her 31 winners—more than double Pegula’s tally—showed her willingness to take risks and dictate the terms of the engagement.

Key Moments and Rally Analysis

The match was won in the “short points.” Rybakina won the vast majority of rallies ending in under four shots, largely thanks to her 47% receiving points won. Whenever Pegula’s first serve percentage dipped (it finished at 64%), Rybakina pounced, recording 6 return winners to Pegula’s 1.

Pegula’s best moments came when she forced Rybakina into longer exchanges. The American induced 23 forced errors from Rybakina’s backhand and forehand combined, but she couldn’t consistently find the “plus-one” shot to finish the points.

“I knew I had to be aggressive,” Rybakina said in her post-match interview. “Jessica is a great champion and she doesn’t give you anything for free. I’m just happy my serve worked well in the tiebreak.”

Looking Ahead: A Blockbuster Final

With this victory, Elena Rybakina moves on to face a familiar foe. She will meet world number one Aryna Sabalenka in the Saturday final.

This matchup is a repeat of their high-stakes encounter at the 2025 WTA Finals final, where Rybakina defeated Sabalenka in straight sets (6-3, 7-6) to claim the year-end crown. Sabalenka will no doubt be seeking revenge on the blue courts of Melbourne, while Rybakina looks to add a second Grand Slam trophy to her cabinet.