Sabalenka vs. Rybakina - Australian Open 2026 Final Preview and Prediction

Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026 Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Time: 19:30 AEDT

History has a way of repeating itself, but rarely with this level of ferocious intensity. Three years after their classic three-set duel in the 2023 final, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and fifth seed Elena Rybakina will collide once again on Rod Laver Arena to decide the Australian Open champion.

Both women arrive at the final in imperious form, having achieved a rarity in modern tennis: neither has dropped a single set en route to the championship match. This marks the first time since 2004 that both Australian Open women’s finalists have advanced with unblemished records, setting the stage for a collision of irresistible force and immovable object.

The Backdrop: A Rivalry renewed

The head-to-head record sits on a razor’s edge. Sabalenka currently leads the rivalry 8-6, but the momentum has oscillated wildly. While Sabalenka claimed their most significant meeting here in Melbourne in 2023, Rybakina struck the most recent blow, dismantling the Belarusian in the 2025 WTA Finals in Riyadh.

Sabalenka, appearing in her fourth consecutive Australian Open final, is chasing her third Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup. Her semi-final demolition of Elina Svitolina (6-2, 6-3) was a masterclass in controlled aggression. Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion, has been equally clinical, dispatching sixth seed Jessica Pegula 6-3, 7-6(7) in a semi-final that showcased her ability to stay cool under extreme pressure.

Keys to the Match: Sabalenka’s Path to Victory

For the top seed, the mission is to disrupt Rybakina’s rhythm before she can impose her will on the match. Sabalenka’s game has matured significantly since their first meetings; she is no longer just a power-hitter but a tactician who knows when to pull the trigger.

Trusting the Backhand: Sabalenka’s backhand down the line has been her most lethal weapon this fortnight. To win, she must trust her backhand winners to finish rallies early. By pulling the trigger on the first available short ball, she can keep Rybakina moving and prevent the Kazakh from planting her feet and finding a serving rhythm. If Sabalenka gets into cross-court grinding matches, she risks playing into Rybakina’s strike zone.
The Element of Surprise: While renowned for her baseline thunder, Sabalenka needs to mix in surprise dropshots after heavy groundstrokes. Rybakina moves exceptionally well laterally, but can be vulnerable when pulled forward unexpectedly. A heavy, deep forehand followed immediately by a delicate dropper will force Rybakina out of her comfort zone behind the baseline and disrupt the cadence of her power game.
Clutch in the Breakers: Tiebreaks often decide matches between big servers. Sabalenka must stay confident in tiebreaks, relying on her superior clutch record in these high-stakes moments. The psychological edge here is vital; if a set goes the distance, Sabalenka’s ability to find her biggest serves when trailing or level is a proven differentiator.

Keys to the Match: Rybakina’s Path to Victory

Elena Rybakina is the tour’s “Ice Queen,” unfazed by the occasion or the opponent. Her path to a second Grand Slam title relies on suffocating Sabalenka’s time and neutralizing her power with superior precision.

Serve Dominance: It starts and ends with the delivery. Rybakina must use her massive serve to pile up free points. Against a returner as aggressive as Sabalenka, “freebies” are gold dust. Rybakina needs to hit her spots out wide to open the court, avoiding long, grueling rallies where the momentum can shift violently in Sabalenka’s favor.
Depth Over Width: The Kazakh star cannot afford to drop the ball short. She must hit deep forehands to push Sabalenka back. By pinning the World No. 1 behind the Melbourne sign, Rybakina limits the angles available for Sabalenka’s attacking returns. If Sabalenka is forced to hit from three feet behind the baseline, her ability to dictate play diminishes drastically.
Stepping In: Passive play is a death sentence against the top seed. Rybakina must step inside the baseline on returns. By taking the ball early, she takes time away from Sabalenka, preventing the Belarusian from resetting after her serve. If Rybakina can block the return deep to the toes, she stops Sabalenka from dictating the early exchanges, turning defense into offense instantly.

Prediction

This match feels like a coin flip, dictated largely by who serves better on the day. Rybakina’s recent win in Riyadh gives her tactical confidence, and her serve has looked unbreakable throughout the tournament. However, Sabalenka’s record at Melbourne Park is staggering; she simply refuses to lose on these courts.

The deciding factor may well be the “Keys to the Match” regarding movement. If Sabalenka effectively utilizes the dropshot to break Rybakina’s baseline rhythm, she adds a dimension Rybakina may struggle to counter. Conversely, if Rybakina serves above 70%, the racquet is taken out of Sabalenka’s hands.

Expect a three-set thriller reminiscent of 2023. Rybakina may snatch the first set with her impeccable serving, but Sabalenka’s grit, combined with her newfound variety and clutch tiebreak performance, should see the World No. 1 defend her fortress.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 6-4).