Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik: Australian Open 2026 – Round 4 Preview
Date: January 25, 2026 Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park Head-to-Head: De Minaur leads 3-2
The Rod Laver Arena crowd is bracing for a Sunday night spectacle as Australia’s own Alex de Minaur [6] faces the mercurial Alexander Bublik [10]. This fourth-round clash offers a fascinating contrast in styles: the relentless, structured speed of the “Demon” against the explosive, improvisational flair of the Kazakhstani star.
With a quarterfinal berth against either Carlos Alcaraz or Tommy Paul on the line, the pressure is squarely on the home favorite to dismantle a dangerous opponent who has been in career-best form this week.
Path to Round 4
Alexander Bublik (KAZ) Bublik has been surprisingly disciplined in his march to the second week, reaching the fourth round without dropping a single set. His serve has been impenetrable, allowing him to close out tight sets with ease.
- R1: def. J. Brooksby (6-4, 6-4, 6-4)
- R2: def. M. Fucsovics (7-5, 6-4, 7-5)
- R3: def. T. Etcheverry (7-6, 7-6, 6-4)
The win over Etcheverry in the third round showcased Bublik’s newfound mental fortitude, winning two tiebreaks before closing the door in the third.
Alex de Minaur (AUS) The No. 6 seed has energized the home fans with gritty performances. While his first and third rounds were straight-set victories, he was tested significantly in the second round by the young power-hitter Hamad Medjedovic.
- R1: def. M. McDonald (6-2, 6-2, 6-3)
- R2: def. H. Medjedovic (6-7, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1)
- R3: def. F. Tiafoe (6-3, 6-4, 7-5)
De Minaur’s dismantling of Frances Tiafoe in Round 3 was a masterclass in controlled aggression, proving he is physically ready for the second week.
The Matchup: History & Tactics
De Minaur leads the head-to-head 3-2, though recent momentum slightly favors Bublik in big tournaments.
- Recent Battles (2025): Bublik won their last two meetings, edging De Minaur in a tight three-setter at the Paris Masters quarterfinals and pulling off a stunning comeback from two sets down at Roland Garros.
- De Minaur’s Success: The Australian dominated their 2024 Indian Wells clash (7-5, 6-0) and claimed victory on clay at Barcelona 2021. He also won their first meeting in the 2021 Antalya final via retirement.
Keys for Bublik
- Disrupt the Rhythm: Bublik must use his explosive forehand and trademark drop shots to keep De Minaur from settling into a baseline groove. If he allows De Minaur to find a rhythm, the Australian’s consistency will win out.
- Attack the Second Serve: The tactical plan calls for Bublik to step in early on De Minaur’s second serve, looking for immediate break chances before the rally extends into the Australian’s comfort zone.
Keys for de Minaur
- Extend the Rallies: The longer the point goes, the more it favors the Australian. De Minaur needs to push rallies past the five-shot mark, where his elite retrieval speed can neutralize Bublik’s power and force errors.
- Scoreboard Pressure: Constant pressure on the return is vital. De Minaur must make Bublik play every ball, testing the Kazakh’s patience and forcing him to go for low-percentage lines.
Prediction
This match will be won or lost on mental discipline. Bublik enters with immaculate form and the confidence of having won their last two major encounters in 2025. His ability to hit through the court can take the racket out of De Minaur’s hands if he is firing.
However, over five sets at Rod Laver Arena, De Minaur’s endurance and defensive capabilities are a massive advantage. The “Demon” has started 2026 in red-hot form—undefeated at the United Cup with wins over Hurkacz and Ruud. Expect Bublik to snatch a set with brilliance, but De Minaur to grind him down in the deeper waters of the match.
Prediction: De Minaur in 4 sets.
Where to Watch
- TV: Nine Network (Australia), ESPN (USA), Eurosport (Europe)
- Streaming: 9Now, ESPN+
- Live Scores: Australian Open Official Web and App
