Australian Open 2026 Semifinal Preview: Pegula vs. Rybakina

Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026 Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park Matchup: [6] Jessica Pegula (USA) vs. [5] Elena Rybakina (KAZ) Stakes: Winner faces Aryna Sabalenka or Elina Svitolina in the Final

The Rod Laver Arena is set for a blockbuster semifinal showdown as American No. 3 Jessica Pegula takes on the 2022 Wimbledon champion, Elena Rybakina. With both players chasing their first Australian Open title, this matchup offers a classic contrast of styles: Pegula’s relentless baseline precision against Rybakina’s explosive first-strike power.

The Rivalry: Deadlocked at 3-3

This will be the seventh career meeting between the two, and the head-to-head record sits at a perfectly balanced 3-3. However, the momentum has recently shifted in the Kazakh’s favor.

• Recent History: Rybakina claimed victory in their most recent high-stakes encounter at the 2025 WTA Finals Semifinal, winning a three-set thriller (4-6, 6-4, 6-3). She also defeated Pegula in straight sets at the 2025 Billie Jean King Cup.
• Pegula’s Edge: Pegula’s victories (WTA Finals 2023, Guadalajara 2022, Miami 2022) came when she was able to neutralize Rybakina’s serve and turn the match into a physical battle of attrition—a tactic she will need to execute perfectly on Thursday.

Path to the Semifinals

Both women have navigated tricky draws to reach the final four, but their quarterfinal performances sent very different messages to the field.

Jessica Pegula (USA)

Pegula has been efficient and composed. After a dominant opening week where she dropped just eight games across the first two rounds, she faced stiffer competition in the second week. Her quarterfinal victory over compatriot Amanda Anisimova (6-2, 7-6) showed her ability to close out tight sets under pressure.

• R1: def. A. Zakharova (6-2, 6-1)
• R2: def. M. Kessler (6-0, 6-2)
• R3: def. O. Selekhmeteva (6-3, 6-2)
• R4: def. [10] Madison Keys (6-3, 6-4)
• QF: def. [4] Amanda Anisimova (6-2, 7-6)

Elena Rybakina (KAZ)

Rybakina enters the semifinals on the back of the tournament’s biggest statement win: a 7-5, 6-1 demolition of World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. After a tight first set, Rybakina’s power game overwhelmed the Pole, proving she is peaking at exactly the right moment.

• R1: def. K. Juvan (6-4, 6-3)
• R2: def. V. Gracheva (7-5, 6-2)
• R3: def. T. Valentova (6-2, 6-3)
• R4: def. E. Mertens (6-1, 6-3)
• QF: def. [1] Iga Swiatek (7-5, 6-1)

Keys to the Match

For Pegula: Disruption & Depth

To win, Pegula cannot allow Rybakina to play stationary tennis.

• Aggressive Return Positioning: Pegula must stand her ground on the baseline to take time away from Rybakina’s serve. If she can block returns deep consistently, she neutralizes Rybakina’s biggest weapon.
• The 5-8 Shot Range: Pegula thrives in neutral rallies. Her goal will be to extend points beyond the 4th shot, where her consistent flat hitting can draw errors from Rybakina’s riskier groundstrokes.
• Net Pressure: On short balls, Pegula needs to press forward instantly. Hesitation will allow Rybakina to reset the point with a defensive lob or passing shot.

For Rybakina: First-Strike Dominance

Rybakina’s game plan is built on removing the opponent’s rhythm.

• Serve Placement: Targeting Pegula’s backhand with the slider out wide will open up the court for a forehand winner into the open space.
• Rally Positioning: Rybakina must avoid getting pushed back. By driving deep forehands into the corners, she can pin Pegula behind the baseline, preventing the American from taking the ball on the rise.
• Composure: Rybakina’s calm demeanor in tiebreaks has been a major asset. Against a mental grinder like Pegula, maintaining focus during the inevitable tight moments in the first set will be crucial.

Prediction

While Pegula has been rock-solid, Rybakina’s ceiling is simply higher on these quick Melbourne courts. Her victory over Swiatek suggests she is in “Grand Slam winning” form. If Rybakina serves above 65%, she likely takes the racquet out of Pegula’s hands. Pegula will make it a fight—likely forcing a tight opening set—but Rybakina’s power should eventually break down the American’s defenses.

Prediction: Rybakina in 2 tight sets (7-6, 6-4).