Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul: Australian Open 2026 – Round 4 Preview
Date: January 25, 2026 Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads 5-2
Rod Laver Arena is set for a blockbuster fourth-round encounter this Sunday as top seed Carlos Alcaraz takes on the 19th seed, Tommy Paul. While Alcaraz has been the picture of dominance during the first week in Melbourne, Paul represents perhaps the first true structural test to the Spaniard’s title campaign.
The American has long been a “thorn in the side” of the World No. 1, possessing the athleticism and court coverage to rush Alcaraz in ways few others can. With a quarterfinal spot against either Alexander Bublik or Alex de Minaur on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Path to Round 4
Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) The Spaniard has breezed through the opening week without dropping a set, spending minimal time on court—a crucial factor as the tournament deepens.
- R1: def. A. Walton (6-3, 7-6, 6-2)
- R2: def. Y. Hanfmann (7-6, 6-3, 6-2)
- R3: def. C. Moutet (6-2, 6-4, 6-1)
Alcaraz’s performance against Moutet was clinical. He neutralized the Frenchman’s variety with crushing power, hitting through the court and using his own drop shot to devastating effect.
Tommy Paul (USA) Paul’s road has been efficient, aided by a shortened third round. After a sluggish start to the season in Adelaide and Brisbane, he seems to have found his rhythm at the right moment.
- R1: def. A. Kovacevic (6-4, 6-3, 6-3)
- R2: def. T. Tirante (6-3, 6-4, 6-2)
- R3: def. A. Davidovich Fokina (RET; 6-1, 6-1)
The retirement of Davidovich Fokina means Paul enters this match with incredibly fresh legs, having played less than an hour of tennis in the Round of 32.
The Matchup: History & Tactics
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 5-2, having won their last three major encounters (Roland Garros 2025, Olympics 2024, and Wimbledon 2024). However, Paul’s two victories (Montreal 2022, Toronto 2023) came on hard courts, where his flat hitting and ability to take the ball early can rush Alcaraz into errors.
Keys for Alcaraz
- Disrupt Rhythm: Alcaraz must use his drop shot not just as a winner, but as a tool to break Paul’s baseline rhythm. If he allows Paul to groove his backhand cross-court, the American will stay in the points all day.
- Aggressive Returns: Data suggests Alcaraz needs to stay aggressive immediately after losing his own serve. Paul can be vulnerable when front-running, and Alcaraz’s ability to break back instantly is a psychological weapon.
Keys for Paul
- First Serve Dominance: To have a chance, Paul cannot afford to second-guess his serve. He needs free points to keep his service games short and prevent Alcaraz from getting a read on the return.
- Extend the Rallies: While counter-intuitive against a power hitter, Paul’s best chance is to test Alcaraz’s patience. By extending rallies, he can force Alcaraz to overhit or go for low-percentage winners too early.
Prediction
Tommy Paul is one of the few players with the speed to defend against Alcaraz’s “front-court” attacks. If Paul serves at a high percentage (above 70%), he can steal a set and make this uncomfortable.
However, Alcaraz’s form this week has been imperious. He has tightened up the loose errors that plagued him during the ATP Finals late last year. Expect Paul to push the Spaniard in tight sets, potentially grabbing one via a tiebreak, but Alcaraz’s weight of shot and variety should eventually dismantle the American’s defenses.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4 sets.
Where to Watch
- TV: Nine Network (Australia), ESPN (USA), Eurosport (Europe)
- Streaming: 9Now, ESPN+
- Live Scores: Australian Open Official Website and App
