Casper Ruud at the 2025 Stockholm Open (BNP Paribas Nordic Open)
The BNP Paribas Nordic Open 2025 sees Norwegian star and reigning Madrid Open champion, Casper Ruud, assume the role of the second seed as he begins a high-stakes campaign at the Royal Tennis Hall in Stockholm. Historically, the three-time Grand Slam finalist has favored clay, but in a year of “highs and lows”, the European indoor swing is now an “all or nothing” push for one of the final spots at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin.
The Stockholm Open is the perfect environment for Ruud to launch this late surge. It is the world’s oldest indoor ATP tournament, offering valuable points, and the Norwegian has a strong history here, having reached the quarter-finals in a previous edition. With the full weight of the Scandinavian spotlight on him and top seed Holger Rune, Ruud’s success will hinge on whether his dominant service game—which was exceptional during his Tokyo semi-final run—can hold up against a field packed with aggressive hard-court veterans and rising talents.
Casper Ruud’s Projected Gauntlet to the Final
Ruud receives a bye in the Round of 32 to begin his journey, but the path immediately stiffens with a daunting Round of 16 encounter.
| Round | Projected Opponent | Match-up Analysis and Key to Victory |
| Round of 16 | Marin Čilić | Ruud begins against the former Grand Slam champion, Marin Čilić. While Ruud holds a 2-0 H2H lead against the veteran, with a notable victory in the 2022 Roland Garros semi-finals, their hard-court meetings are always competitive. The towering Čilić, known for his huge serve and flat hitting, is always a danger on fast indoor courts. Ruud is the favorite with 66.7% implied winning odds, but he must neutralize Čilić’s first-strike power by standing his ground and maximizing his defensive retrieves, thus preventing the 6’6″ Croatian from dictating the short points. |
| Quarter-Finals (QF) | Sebastian Korda | If he prevails, Ruud will likely face the unseeded American, Sebastian Korda, who made a statement by defeating the 7th seed, Alexei Popyrin, in a three-set opening battle. Ruud has historically been dominant in this matchup, leading Korda 2-0 H2H (both wins on clay), including a convincing straight-set win at the Madrid Masters in 2025. Korda’s fluid power is tailored for fast courts, but Ruud’s superior consistency and defensive capability (as highlighted by a large discrepancy in unforced errors in their past meeting: Ruud 5 vs. Korda 17) should give him the tactical advantage to reach the semi-finals. |
| Semi-Finals (SF) | [3] Denis Shapovalov | Should the seeds hold, a thrilling semi-final against the former Stockholm champion, Denis Shapovalov, looms large. The Canadian is a fellow indoor specialist with an attacking, unpredictable game. Shapovalov leads the H2H 1-0 on hard courts, after defeating Ruud in the Dallas Open final in February 2025. Shapovalov’s all-or-nothing approach is rewarded on this surface. For Ruud to succeed, he must lean on his exceptional defense, absorb Shapovalov’s immense power, and use his precise top-spin forehand to repeatedly target the Canadian’s often erratic single-handed backhand, forcing the pressure player into errors. |
| Final | [1] Holger Rune | The ultimate clash for the title is projected to be an explosive all-Scandinavian final against [1] Holger Rune. This rivalry is defined by the high stakes—both are still mathematically fighting for Turin. Rune, the 2022 champion here, has the indoor credentials and momentum. For Ruud to lift the trophy, he must produce his very best tennis. The match will be a stark contrast between Ruud’s controlled, systematic heavy-topspin game and Rune’s aggressive, chaotic brilliance. The player who best manages their first serve and converts the few available break-point opportunities will claim the prestigious trophy. |
Ruud’s season may be described as a mixture of highs and lows, but the indoor swing is a clean slate. If the Norwegian can summon the intensity that won him a Masters 1000 title on clay, his disciplined approach makes him a formidable contender to reclaim the Nordic throne and keep the door to Turin wide open.
