Match Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet - Australian Open 2026 Round of 32

Match: Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) [1] vs. Corentin Moutet (FRA) [32] Date: Friday, January 23, 2026 Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park Time: Day Session, Not before 1:30 PM AEDT Round: Round of 32 (Third Round)

Top seed and World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz continues his quest for a career Grand Slam at the Australian Open 2026, facing off against the unpredictable French left-hander Corentin Moutet in the third round. Scheduled for the Rod Laver Arena, this clash promises a fascinating contrast of styles between Alcaraz’s explosive power and Moutet’s crafty variety.

The Road to the Third Round

Carlos Alcaraz comes into this match after a testing second-round battle. The Spaniard had to dig deep to overcome German veteran Yannick Hanfmann, eventually triumphing 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-2. Alcaraz struggled early against Hanfmann’s heavy hitting, falling behind 3-1 in the first set before rallying to take the tiebreak. His first-round match against Australian wildcard Adam Walton was also a straight-sets victory, though he is still adjusting to the Melbourne conditions. Alcaraz is aiming to surpass his best Australian Open result, having reached the quarterfinals in both 2024 and 2025.

Corentin Moutet, seeded 32nd, has had a dramatic path to the Round of 32. Known for his flair, the Frenchman defeated American student-athlete Michael Zheng in the second round after Zheng retired with a quadricep injury. In the first round, Moutet made headlines by sealing his victory over Tristan Schoolkate with an underarm serve on match point, a move that drew boos from the crowd but showcased his unorthodox tactical mind. Moutet is looking to cause a massive upset and reach the fourth round of a major for only the second time in his career, having previously done so at the 2024 French Open.

Head-to-Head and Key Stats

This meeting marks the first high-profile clash between the two at a Grand Slam, with Alcaraz dominating their previous encounters.

Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads 3-0.
Ranking: Alcaraz is currently World No. 1, while Moutet is ranked No. 37 (seeded 32nd).
Win Probability: Betting markets heavily favor Alcaraz, giving him an implied win probability of around 98% compared to Moutet’s 7.7%.

Tactical Breakdown

Carlos Alcaraz: The key for Alcaraz will be to impose his aggressive baseline game early. His ability to hit big forehands and backhands to both corners allows him to control rallies with immense power. Against a player like Moutet who thrives on disrupting rhythm, Alcaraz must stay aggressive after his serve to finish points quickly before the Frenchman can introduce his variety. Alcaraz will also need to be clinical on break points, trusting his skills when opportunities arise on Moutet’s serve.

Corentin Moutet: Moutet’s best chance lies in making Alcaraz uncomfortable. He will likely use his forehand and backhand drop shots frequently to pull Alcaraz forward and break his baseline rhythm. As a left-hander, he can open up angles that right-handers often cannot, and he will look to mix drop shots with angled passing shots to keep Alcaraz guessing. Moutet also needs to attack second serves from inside the baseline to create early pressure, as he cannot afford to let Alcaraz dictate from the back of the court.

Prediction

While Moutet has the tools to produce highlight-reel moments and potentially frustrate Alcaraz with his “junk ball” tactics, the Spaniard’s firepower and physicality should ultimately prove too much. Alcaraz showed resilience in his previous match, recovering from a slow start to dominate. Moutet’s recent physical issues—he required a medical timeout in the first round—could also be a factor against one of the fittest players on tour. Expect Alcaraz to weather some early trickery before overpowering Moutet to advance to the Round of 16.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets.