Battle for World No. 1: What’s at Stake for Sabalenka and Her Rivals at the US Open

The upcoming US Open is shaping up to be more than just another Grand Slam tournament—it is a direct battle for the top spot in women’s tennis.

Current World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is on the brink of reaching a historic milestone of 100 consecutive weeks at the top of the WTA rankings. By the end of the tournament in New York, she will reach 99 straight weeks (and 107 weeks overall). However, holding onto the top spot for that 100th week is completely out of her control unless she delivers a near-perfect performance.

Because Sabalenka won the US Open title last year, she has 2,000 ranking points coming off her total. To stay at No. 1, she must win her third consecutive US Open title—and even then, her fate depends on how far her main rival advances.

The Primary Threat: Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina enters New York in a commanding position. After a phenomenal stretch that included titles at Ningbo, the WTA Finals, and a second Grand Slam trophy at the Australian Open, she currently leads the WTA Finals Leaderboard.

Rybakina has the clearest path to overtaking Sabalenka:

• The Easy Route: She could become World No. 1 without winning a single match, as long as Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, and Jessica Pegula all fail to win the US Open title.
• The Sure Bet: If Rybakina reaches the semifinals, she automatically guarantees the No. 1 spot, no matter what any other player does.

The American Chasers: Gauff & Pegula

Two American stars are also in the mix for the top spot, though both have much less room for error.

• Coco Gauff arrives with strong momentum after lifting her first trophy of the season in Cincinnati.
• Jessica Pegula continues a standout summer, featuring runner-up finishes in both Washington, D.C. and Cincinnati.

For both Gauff and Pegula, the task is straightforward: they must win the US Open title AND hope Rybakina loses before the semifinals. Achieving this would make either player the World No. 1 for the first time in her career.

Scenario Breakdown: How Each Player Can Finish No. 1