US Open 2026: Osaka vs Rybakina Preview — Round 4 Rematch at Louis Armstrong Stadium
No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina and No. 13 seed Naomi Osaka meet in the Round of 16 at the 2026 US Open, renewing a rivalry that was last settled just weeks ago on North American hard courts.
Match Details
- Round: Round of 16 (Round 4)
- Court: Louis Armstrong Stadium
- Session: Day session, third match
- Estimated start time: Not before 2:30 PM
The Head-to-Head Picture
Rybakina leads the series 1-0 overall, with their only meeting to date coming very recently:
- 2026, Toronto (Canada Open), Quarterfinal (Outdoor Hard): Rybakina won 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4, on her way to a runner-up finish in the tournament
That three-set battle in Toronto is fresh in both players’ minds heading into this rematch, and it suggests another close contest is on the cards.
Form Heading In
- Rybakina has been in dominant form at this year’s US Open, going a perfect 6-0 in sets through three rounds, most recently defeating Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6(6), 6-3 in the Third Round.
- Osaka has had to work harder for her wins, going the distance in back-to-back matches — including a gritty Third Round win over No. 23 seed Elise Mertens, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, while managing a lingering Achilles issue.
- A run to the semifinals for Rybakina would put her in position to reach world No. 1 after the tournament, depending on results elsewhere in the draw. She has already won two titles this season, at the Australian Open and in Stuttgart, on top of closing out 2025 with a WTA Finals title.
- Osaka, a former world No. 1 and two-time US Open champion (2018, 2020), has also drawn attention this tournament for her on-court fashion, with looks inspired by basketball icon Allen Iverson.
By the Numbers
| Naomi Osaka | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Country | Japan | Kazakhstan |
| Singles Titles (Career) | 7 | 13 |
| Career Prize Money | $26,612,806 | $29,818,052 |
| Career W/L (Singles) | 347-191 | 432-175 |
| 2026 Aces | 204 | 357 |
| 2026 1st Serve Won % | 71.5% | 73.4% |
| 2026 Break Points Saved | 57.4% | 65.6% |
| 2026 Service Games Won % | 77.9% | 81.5% |
What to Watch For
Rybakina’s serve remains one of the most dangerous weapons on tour, and her 2026 numbers — from aces to service games won — back that up. But Osaka has proven she can hang in long, physical matches even while carrying a knock, and their Toronto meeting showed she’s capable of taking a set off the Kazakh and pushing her deep into a decider. With ranking implications on the line for Rybakina and a chance to reassert herself deep in a Slam for Osaka, this Round of 16 clash could be one of the most closely contested matches of the tournament so far.
Match time is an estimate based on scheduled order of play in the Louis Armstrong Stadium day session and may shift depending on the duration of the two matches preceding it.
