Last Spot Drama: Rybakina and Andreeva in a Race to the Finish for WTA Finals Riyadh

The final days of the 2025 PIF Race to the WTA Finals have arrived with a thrilling, winner-take-all scenario for the eighth and final singles spot in the prestigious year-end championship in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. With seven players already confirmed for the elite tournament beginning November 1st, all eyes are fixed on the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, where Elena Rybakina holds the key to her own destiny in a nail-biting battle against Mirra Andreeva.

The field for the WTA Finals—which gathers the top eight singles players and doubles teams of the season to compete for a share of a massive $15.5 million total prize commitment—is nearly complete. The confirmed qualifiers are a testament to year-long excellence and include World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Świątek, defending champion Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula, and Madison Keys.

Joining this star-studded line-up is the latest qualifier, Italy’s Jasmine Paolini, who officially punched her ticket this past weekend. Paolini, who is also set to compete in the doubles draw with Sara Errani, confirmed her spot with her late-season consistency, including a spectacular run to the semifinals of the WTA 500 Ningbo Open. Her qualification marks a career-defining season, highlighted by a WTA 1000 title in Rome.

The 14-Point Chasm: The Final Battle

With Paolini securing the seventh berth, the remaining spot comes down to a direct shootout between two powerful contenders: Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina and Russia’s teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva.

As the final week of the race begins, the margin separating the two is almost non-existent. Andreeva currently holds the narrowest of leads, sitting at 8th in the PIF Race to the WTA Finals leaderboard with 4,319 points, just 14 points ahead of Rybakina at 9th with 4,305 points.

However, the tie has been thrown into Rybakina’s control. Andreeva is not in the draw for the final relevant tournament of the race, the WTA 500 Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo. This means the 18-year-old’s fate rests entirely on Rybakina’s performance in Japan.

For Rybakina to qualify for her third consecutive WTA Finals, she must reach the semifinals in Tokyo. A semifinal appearance at the WTA 500 event awards 195 points, which would be more than enough to overtake Andreeva’s current total and secure the final spot. If Rybakina falls before the semifinal stage, the final berth will automatically go to Andreeva, who would make her first-ever appearance at the year-end championship.

Rybakina is entering Tokyo with strong momentum, having just clinched a massive title at the Ningbo Open this past week by defeating Ekaterina Alexandrova in the final. Her task in Tokyo is made slightly easier by a key tournament development: Paolini’s late withdrawal has elevated Rybakina to the top-seeded player in the tournament. This grants her a crucial first-round bye, meaning the former Wimbledon champion needs to win just two matches to punch her ticket to Riyadh.

The Road Through Tokyo: Confirmed R16 Matchup

The provided tournament bracket clearly outlines Rybakina’s path. Following Paolini’s withdrawal, Rybakina entered as the No. 2 seed and received a first-round bye—meaning she needs to win just two matches to secure the necessary points.

Crucially, the bracket confirms her Round of 16 (Second Round) opponent: Leylah Fernandez.

• Rybakina’s R16 Matchup: Elena Rybakina (2) vs. Leylah Fernandez (Winner of Fernandez/Sakkari).
  • Fernandez, fresh off winning the Japan Open in Osaka, successfully advanced through her opening match, defeating qualifier Maria Sakkari in straight sets, setting up the clash with Rybakina.
• Rybakina’s Potential Quarterfinal Opponent: If Rybakina defeats Fernandez, she advances to the quarterfinals where the bracket shows her facing the winner of the match between Eva Lys and Victoria Mboko (who defeated Bianca Andreescu in her opener).
  • The path from the quarterfinal onwards dictates Rybakina’s fate: reaching the semifinals will earn her the 195 points needed to leapfrog Andreeva and clinch the final ticket to Riyadh.

This confirmation sharpens the drama considerably. Rybakina has a direct, two-match pathway to qualification while competing at a high level. The pressure remains, but the advantage of the bye and the defined opponent in the Round of 16 gives the powerful Kazakh a clear, tangible target to pursue over the next few days as the final chapter of the Race unfolds in Tokyo. If she falters before the semis, Andreeva, despite not playing, will book her first-ever WTA Finals appearance.