Holger Rune at the 2025 Stockholm Open (BNP Paribas Nordic Open)
The BNP Paribas Nordic Open 2025 is set to electrify the Royal Tennis Hall in Stockholm, with Holger Rune entering the ATP 250 event as the undisputed Top Seed. For the dynamic 22-year-old Dane, this tournament is personal. Not only is the Stockholm title a crucial stop in the final push for a spot at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin (Rune currently sits 12th in the Live Race), but it is also the site of his breakthrough 2022 title run.
Rune’s history on indoor hard courts is undeniable: he famously captured his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title in Paris in 2022 and is known for his aggressive baseline play and comfort on fast surfaces. After a mid-season struggle, recent back-to-back quarter-final appearances in Tokyo and Shanghai show he has found the necessary consistency and confidence. The Stockhom draw presents a tough, yet navigable path, where the Danish star must channel his “all-around” game to triumph over the Nordic and European field.
Holger Rune’s Projected Path to the Final
Rune, by virtue of his top seeding, receives a bye in the first round (Round of 32), granting him valuable time to practice and acclimate to the quick Stockholm courts.
| Round | Projected Opponent | Match-up Analysis and Key to Victory |
| Round of 16 | Jesper de Jong or Márton Fucsovics | Rune faces a difficult opener against either the veteran power of Fucsovics, a recent ATP 250 champion (Winston-Salem), or the in-form Jesper de Jong. Historically, Rune thrives against players who prioritize power and consistency, but Fucsovics’ relentless defense and fighting spirit are always a threat. Rune must immediately set the tone with his aggressive return game and powerful forehand to prevent the match from becoming a grueling baseline battle. |
| Quarter-Finals (QF) | Miomir Kecmanović | If successful, the Quarter-Finals could see Rune face Miomir Kecmanović. The Serb has already shown his tenacity by defeating the 6th seed, Alexandre Müller, in straight sets to advance. However, Kecmanović is a favorable match-up for the Dane; Rune leads the Head-to-Head 3-1 (75% win rate), with all their matches occurring on hard courts. Rune’s superior all-court versatility should allow him to control the rallies and expose the consistency gaps in the Serb’s game, securing a projected semi-final berth. |
| Semi-Finals (SF) | [4] Ugo Humbert, Matteo Berrettini, or [8] Camilo Ugo Carabelli | This section of the draw is where the title is truly won. [4] Ugo Humbert presents the biggest technical threat, as the Frenchman is a dangerous left-handed fast-court specialist. Rune must exploit Humbert’s second serve and rely on the improved service game he showcased in Shanghai. Alternatively, the explosive Matteo Berrettini, though battling injury, possesses a colossal forehand and serve that can overwhelm any opponent on indoor courts. Rune must utilize his nimble footwork and defensive skills, described as a “good slice, good dropshot, good volley”, to avoid the Italian’s power zones. |
| Final | [2] Casper Ruud or [3] Denis Shapovalov | Should Rune reach the final, he will face a true indoor hard-court giant. A final against [2] Casper Ruud would ignite the highly anticipated all-Scandinavian rivalry, with both players vying for crucial points in the Race to Turin. A battle against [3] Denis Shapovalov would be equally compelling, as the Canadian is a former Stockholm champion (2019) and a rejuvenated force on hard courts in 2025. To lift the trophy, Rune must produce the kind of “world-beating tennis” that defeated Novak Djokovic in 2022, effectively blending controlled aggression with his trademark competitive fire. |
A successful title defense in Stockholm would not only mark a major milestone for Rune in his quest to return to the ATP Finals, but it would firmly establish him as the player to watch heading into the final stages of the 2025 season.
